In keeping with my yearly tradition of not knowing when to quit, here are some real and patently false predictions for the coming year.
By the way, I've been told that my screeds against Microsoft have become a little harsh lately (and by normal people, not by their lawyers), so I'll try and limit that. But they're such a great target, if only because they're the 800-pound gorilla of computers. I won't ignore them. So, onward.
Microsoft will continue its marketing inroads into the academic market, nibbling away at Apple's old dominance. This will be done two ways. First, it will settle a rash of consumer lawsuits about its monopoly in Windows (separate from the Justice Department's and various states' lawsuits) by donating equipment and software to
"deserving" schools as a "penalty." This is, of course, another massive win for the Evil Empire, because it gets rid of the suits, is a great PR move at a low cost (How much does the donated software actually cost them?) and allows them to place Microsoft software in schools that normally would use Apple.
Secondly, Microsoft will introduce "academic" versions of Office XP through the mass marketers such as Costco and Staples. Right next to the "standard" $439 version is a full academic version at $149. Normally these have only been available at college bookstores. What does it take to qualify for the "academic" version now? It needs to be used by any kindergartner through 12th grader, including those who are home schooled. As far as the store people checking if you really qualify, that's a big "yeah, riggggght." Parents please note, however, that you can only legally use it if you are assisting your child. Yeah, riggggght.
Also, Microsoft will release new Service Packs (also known as collections of bug fixes) for Office and Windows XP, thus qualifying them as perhaps ready for adoption by people not willing to be Microsoft guinea pigs. The first one is out already for Office.
Continued evolution of viruses and worms will make life more miserable for normal people. It appears that the Goner worm that recently spread with such force (at its peak, it was measured as appearing in one of every 30 e-mails) was created by four 14-15 year olds. As I say every time, the only solution is to get anti-virus software and keep it up to date-and by that I mean updating every two weeks at the longest. It's a lot easier than re-creating all your files. Also, check for security patches issued for your e-mail and browser programs. A new one is out at Microsoft's web site to update Internet Explorer versions 5.5 and 6 to cover security holes.
"Smart" appliances will continued to be pushed, largely by software vendors and bleeding-edge geeks, to continued waves of yawns by the rest of us. Do we really want our refrigerator to send a message to our Palm Pilot that we're out of guacamole? And is it true that MSN really stands for MicroSoft Nachos?
Wireless networks for the home may eventually grow past the gimmick stage to become useful. People trying to tie together sharing of cable modems have been the first adapters, but have faced uncertain results since many of the transmitters and wireless adapters have significant "drop off" problems. By the time you take your laptop to the kitchen, a floor away from the transmitter, the signal strength may have dropped to 30% or less. Not good. Use of higher frequencies may solve this. Meanwhile, they are marginal. If you can string wire between your units, however, the price for a Linksys cable router (used for Internet sharing) has dropped to $80 or less. That's nice.
More and more parents will install "security" software that tracks their kids' web site visits and records their instant messages, thus setting up the fight of their life with their kids when they reveal something they learned from it. The Information Technology industry will remain in the doldrums, with corporate (and especially mid-size business) spending way down from previous years. It's quite a reversal of fortune for the high flyers, actually to have to be accountable for the bucks (usually other peoples') that they previously spent with abandon.
And finally, Bill Gates will be "taken home" by Will Smith and Tommy Lee Jones. About time.
